The EB-2 NIW approval rate is not one number. In the USCIS data through 2026 it ranges widely, and at least one of the figures in circulation has probably worried you. Several are accurate at the same time. What almost none explain is the part that matters most: an approval rate describes a population of petitions, and your petition is not a population.

What is the current EB-2 NIW approval rate?

There is no single number. Across the six most recent published quarters — October 2024 through March 2026 — USCIS approved 24,942 National Interest Waiver petitions and denied 22,349, which works out to 52.7%. Individual quarters run from 35.7% to 67.3%.

Those figures come from USCIS’s quarterly Form I-140 by Fiscal Year, Quarter and Case Status reports, which break out each classification. As of August 2026, the most recent covers Fiscal Year 2026, Quarter 2 (January–March 2026). Quarter by quarter, approvals as a share of cases decided:

·       FY2025 Q1 (Oct–Dec 2024): 4,683 approved, 2,790 denied — 62.7%

·       FY2025 Q2 (Jan–Mar 2025): 6,591 approved, 3,206 denied — 67.3%

·       FY2025 Q3 (Apr–Jun 2025): 5,290 approved, 4,511 denied — 54.0%

·       FY2025 Q4 (Jul–Sep 2025): 2,968 approved, 5,356 denied — 35.7%

·       FY2026 Q1 (Oct–Dec 2025): 2,368 approved, 3,203 denied — 42.5%

·       FY2026 Q2 (Jan–Mar 2026): 3,042 approved, 3,283 denied — 48.1%

One detail matters before any of it becomes a percentage: USCIS publishes counts, not rates. Every figure above is arithmetic someone performed on the agency’s counts — which is why the same data produces different headlines. Count only the four most recent quarters and the rate is 45.5%; count FY2025 on its own and it is 55.2%.

That spread matters when a figure alarms you. FY2025 Q4 — 5,356 denials against 2,968 approvals, a denial rate of 64.3% — is the worst quarter in the series, and it sits behind most of the alarming numbers in circulation. It is a real number, and the floor: the two quarters after it went up.

Does a low approval rate mean my EB-2 NIW petition will be denied?

No — and not because the outlook is reassuring, but because the number is not that kind of number. An approval rate summarizes work the agency completed across a mixed population of filings; it is not a probability attached to any individual case. Four reasons, from the data’s own documentation:

1. Decisions in a quarter come from petitions filed across many years. The USCIS reports note that “some applications approved, denied, or pending a decision may have been received in previous reporting periods.” You can watch it happen: in the first half of FY2026 the E21 line approved 26,744 petitions while receiving only 21,876, clearing older inventory. A quarterly rate describes what the agency finished, not what happens to a petition filed today.

2. The large majority of petitions have not been decided at all. At the close of FY2026 Q2 in March 2026, 89,215 NIW petitions were still awaiting a decision — against 11,896 resolved in the preceding six months. The decided cases are not a random sample; they are the ones that reached an officer first, and any rate inherits that.

3. The data counts petitions, not people. The reports note that “since petitioners are able to file more than one petition, this report includes all filed petitions; therefore, it could contain multiple petitions for a single individual.” It is not even a per-applicant rate — it is a per-filing rate.

4. Adjudication is individual, and the standard is evidentiary. Matter of Dhanasar, 26 I&N Dec. 884 (AAO 2016), which governs NIW adjudication, describes the third prong as a balancing Congress entrusted to the agency “within the context of individual national interest waiver adjudications.” The standard is preponderance of the evidence: a petitioner “must establish that he or she more likely than not satisfies the qualifying elements,” and the agency considers “not only the quantity, but also the quality (including relevance, probative value, and credibility) of the evidence.”

One more thing the number is not about: you. Across the same six quarters, Form I-140 overall ran about 86.6% and advanced-degree petitions filed with a job offer and labor certification (E21) about 97.5%, against 52.7% for NIW. E21 and NIW are the same visa preference; what separates them is the waiver. The NIW figure describes how one kind of request is faring — not how hard EB-2 is to qualify for, and not what kind of person gets approved.

Your case will be decided on the record you file, measured against a standard that asks what that record makes more likely than not.

Why did EB-2 NIW approval rates change?

Three things are visible in the official series, and only one is about how petitions are judged.

Filings grew over several years. EB-2 petitions received went from 84,474 in FY2022 to 116,183 in FY2025, roughly 37% more arriving in the same system.

The pending pile grew every quarter, from 56,611 to 89,215 — while new NIW filings fell each quarter, from 20,141 to 12,641. The inventory is growing because decisions are not keeping pace, not because of a rush of new cases.

The guidance was updated. A January 15, 2025 update to the USCIS Policy Manual — Volume 6, Part F, Chapter 5 — clarified how the agency evaluates national interest waiver eligibility. It took effect on publication and applied to petitions already pending. Our complete guide to the EB-2 NIW self-petition covers it in detail.

What did not change is the legal test. Dhanasar has governed NIW adjudication since 2016, and its three prongs — substantial merit and national importance, being well positioned to advance the endeavor, and the on-balance benefit of waiving the job offer — remain what an officer applies.

One more trap sits in the historical data. USCIS publishes a second table organized by the fiscal year a petition was filed: there, NIW approvals read 29,092 for FY2023 filings and 2,207 for FY2026. That looks like a collapse, but the report warns it “is based on the fiscal year in which the petition was submitted to USCIS, not the fiscal year in which the petition was adjudicated.” Those years look thin because most of their petitions are still undecided.

What is the EB-2 NIW RFE rate?

USCIS does not publish one. A Request for Evidence is the agency asking for additional documentation before deciding — not a denial, and not a sign that a case is failing. We cover what an RFE involves in our guide to RFEs in EB-2 NIW petitions.

An RFE rate would be a useful leading indicator, since RFEs are issued before decisions and would show a shift in what officers ask for months ahead of the approval numbers. But as of August 2026 the agency publishes quarterly RFE data only for Form I-129 and for I-360 special immigrant juvenile petitions. Its employment-based releases carry receipts, approvals, denials, and pending counts for Form I-140 — nothing on RFEs. A percentage presented as “the NIW RFE rate” is not coming from that data.

What actually makes an EB-2 NIW petition strong?

The record does — and the criteria it is judged against are public, not guesswork. Whatever a given quarter’s number turns out to be, an officer applies the same published framework to your file, and you can build to it deliberately.

That framework is Matter of Dhanasar’s three prongs, elaborated in the USCIS Policy Manual at Volume 6, Part F, Chapter 5. A petition that addresses each prong with concrete evidence rather than assertion is a strong petition. No one can tell you how yours will be decided, and no one preparing documentation should claim otherwise — but the gap between a well-documented file and a thin one is real, and it is yours to close.

Evidence tends to matter more than framing. Dhanasar lists what the second prong looks at: “the individual’s education, skills, knowledge and record of success in related or similar efforts; a model or plan for future activities; any progress towards achieving the proposed endeavor; and the interest of potential customers, users, investors, or other relevant entities or individuals.” Every item there is a documentary category, not an adjective: a record of success is letters, contracts, citations, adoption figures; a plan is written, specific, and dated. Petitions generally get into trouble when they assert these qualities rather than document them.

You are not being asked to guarantee an outcome. Dhanasar is explicit that petitioners need not “demonstrate that their endeavors are more likely than not to ultimately succeed,” only establish that they are well positioned to advance the endeavor. That changes what belongs in a petition: evidence of positioning, not promises of results.

Being ready generally beats filing quickly. With an inventory that size, a petition filed with gaps waits just as long as a complete one — and the gaps are still there when an officer opens it.

Built that way, a petition is strong on its own terms, in a good quarter or a bad one.

If you have already received a denial, consulting an immigration attorney about your options is the sensible step.

Where can I check USCIS NIW data myself?

On the USCIS website, for free. You do not have to take anyone’s percentage on faith:

1.       Go to uscis.gov, then Tools → Reports and Studies → Immigration and Citizenship Data.

2.       Open the fiscal year and quarter you want. Releases lag by a few months.

3.       “Form I-140 by Fiscal Year, Quarter and Case Status” carries the quarterly numbers, with National Interest Waiver on its own row. Each file covers one fiscal year, so a multi-quarter picture means opening more than one. A companion file breaks the same universe out by country of birth — Brazil is among the top five for I-140 receipts in FY2026.

4.       Read the Notes at the bottom of each sheet before the numbers. They are short, and they say what the table does and does not represent.

5.       Remember these are counts. Every rate is arithmetic performed on them, including the ones here.

At DAL Global Partners, we prepare the documentation that supports EB-2 NIW petitions — endeavor and personal statements, expert and testimonial letters, business plans for immigration purposes, certified translations, and RFE responses. Our work is to make the record reflect what the evidence supports, organized against the criteria an officer applies.

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For more on what drives denials, see Understanding Denials in EB-2 NIW Petitions.

Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal advice or a recommendation regarding any specific immigration matter.